{ "meta": { "generated": "2026-08-28", "generator": "tools/build_metric_registry.py", "rule": "One object owns each metric. A page may render a metric only if it is listed here, and the value it renders must equal the canonical object. Every value below is read from that object at build time, never typed.", "dataset_registry": "/assets/data/dataset_registry.json" }, "metrics": [ { "id": "national_health_plan_share", "label": "MA & other health plan share, national", "file": "cms_geo_canonical.json", "path": "national.share_pct", "formula": "MA_AND_OTH_BENES / TOT_BENES * 100, rounded to 1 decimal", "basis": "the CMS National record for April 2026, not the sum of county rows", "jurisdiction_set": "the single CMS National record", "provenance": "LIVE", "dataset": "ma_other_health_plan_enrollment_and_share_county_state_and_n", "pages": [ "/", "/market/", "/market/ma-penetration-by-state/", "/market/states/*", "/market/states/*/*", "/methodology/" ], "guard": "tools/test_consistency_v2.py, tools/test_state_reconciliation.py", "value": 51.1, "canonical_object": "/assets/data/cms_geo_canonical.json" }, { "id": "national_county_sum_share", "label": "MA & other health plan share, county aggregation", "file": "cms_geo_canonical.json", "path": "national.county_sum_share_pct", "formula": "Sum(county MA_AND_OTH_BENES) / Sum(county TOT_BENES) * 100", "basis": "RECONCILIATION ONLY. Published beside the canonical national share to show the gap, never as a replacement for it.", "jurisdiction_set": "3,199 county rows", "provenance": "DERIVED", "dataset": "ma_other_health_plan_enrollment_and_share_county_state_and_n", "pages": [ "/market/ma-penetration-by-state/", "/methodology/" ], "guard": "tools/test_state_reconciliation.py", "value": 51.6, "canonical_object": "/assets/data/cms_geo_canonical.json" }, { "id": "national_geography_residual", "label": "Beneficiaries CMS reports without a county", "file": "cms_geo_canonical.json", "path": "national.residual_beneficiaries", "formula": "National TOT_BENES minus Sum(county TOT_BENES)", "basis": "Mostly the CMS Foreign row plus the suppressed Unknown row. Explains the gap between the two shares above.", "jurisdiction_set": "national minus 3,199 counties", "provenance": "DERIVED", "dataset": "ma_other_health_plan_enrollment_and_share_county_state_and_n", "pages": [ "/market/ma-penetration-by-state/", "/methodology/" ], "guard": "tools/test_state_reconciliation.py", "value": 689033, "canonical_object": "/assets/data/cms_geo_canonical.json" }, { "id": "state_health_plan_share", "label": "MA & other health plan share, by jurisdiction", "file": "cms_geo_canonical.json", "path": "states[].share_pct", "formula": "MA_AND_OTH_BENES / TOT_BENES * 100 per CMS State record", "basis": "the direct CMS State record for each jurisdiction", "jurisdiction_set": "53 jurisdictions with a CMS State row and a site surface. AS, GU and MP have CMS rows but no surface; FO and UK are excluded as non-geographic.", "provenance": "LIVE", "dataset": "ma_other_health_plan_enrollment_and_share_county_state_and_n", "pages": [ "/", "/market/ma-penetration-by-state/", "/market/compare/", "/market/states/*" ], "guard": "tools/test_audit_2026_08_28.py, tools/test_state_reconciliation.py", "count": 53, "value": null, "canonical_object": "/assets/data/cms_geo_canonical.json" }, { "id": "state_rank", "label": "National rank by health plan share", "file": "cms_geo_canonical.json", "path": "states[].rank", "formula": "Descending rank on the EXACT share, not the rounded one", "basis": "Ranking on the rounded value inverted two pairs before 2026-08-28.", "jurisdiction_set": "the same 53 jurisdictions", "provenance": "DERIVED", "dataset": "ma_other_health_plan_enrollment_and_share_county_state_and_n", "pages": [ "/market/ma-penetration-by-state/", "/market/compare/", "/market/states/*" ], "guard": "tools/test_state_reconciliation.py", "count": 53, "value": null, "canonical_object": "/assets/data/cms_geo_canonical.json" }, { "id": "county_health_plan_share", "label": "MA & other health plan share, by county", "file": "ma_counties.json", "path": "data[p]", "formula": "MA_AND_OTH_BENES / TOT_BENES * 100 per CMS county row", "basis": "the direct CMS county record", "jurisdiction_set": "3,199 counties", "provenance": "LIVE", "dataset": "ma_other_health_plan_enrollment_and_share_county_state_and_n", "pages": [ "/market/counties/", "/market/states/*/*", "/market/fastest-growing-counties/", "/marketing/opportunity/" ], "guard": "tools/test_county_reconciliation.py, tools/test_consistency_v2.py", "count": 3199, "value": null, "canonical_object": "/assets/data/ma_counties.json" }, { "id": "county_penetration_change_pp", "label": "12-month change in health plan share, points", "file": "ma_counties.json", "path": "data[dp]", "formula": "current share minus April 2025 share, in points", "basis": "Two counties have no April 2025 record and carry null, never zero.", "jurisdiction_set": "3,197 of 3,199 counties", "provenance": "DERIVED", "dataset": "ma_other_health_plan_enrollment_and_share_county_state_and_n", "pages": [ "/market/counties/", "/market/fastest-growing-counties/", "/market/states/*/*" ], "guard": "tools/test_audit_2026_08_28.py", "count": 3197, "value": null, "canonical_object": "/assets/data/ma_counties.json" }, { "id": "opportunity_score", "label": "MedicareInsights Market Opportunity Score v0.1", "file": "opportunity_scores.json", "path": "scores[fips].score", "formula": "Weighted percentile ranks: market size 0.30, headroom 0.25, momentum 0.25, enrollment growth 0.20, renormalised over the components available", "basis": "MODELED arithmetic over published CMS counts. Ranks market ATTRACTIVENESS, not winnability: the four components describing competitive difficulty need CMS CPSC, Landscape/PBP and contract-level Star Ratings, none of them ingested.", "jurisdiction_set": "3,199 counties; 2 scored on 2 of 8 components", "provenance": "MODELED", "dataset": "ma_other_health_plan_enrollment_and_share_county_state_and_n", "pages": [ "/market/states/*/*", "/marketing/opportunity/" ], "guard": "tools/test_audit_2026_08_28.py", "count": 3199, "value": null, "canonical_object": "/assets/data/opportunity_scores.json" }, { "id": "dsnp_capture_proxy", "label": "D-SNP capture proxy, national", "file": "canonical_metrics.json", "path": "dsnp_capture_proxy.value_pct", "formula": "Sum(state D-SNP enrollment) / Sum(state dual population) * 100", "basis": "CROSS-VINTAGE market sizing, not an enrollment rate: August 2026 SNP enrollment over the April 2026 dual population. Puerto Rico is excluded on both sides because CMS records 5,415 duals there against 308,050 D-SNP enrollees. AK, VT and VI carry no D-SNP row.", "jurisdiction_set": "the 49 jurisdictions whose per-state proxy is published", "provenance": "DERIVED", "dataset": "snp_enrollment_by_plan_and_state_live", "pages": [ "/market/snp/", "/marketing/", "/marketing/dsnp/", "/learn/" ], "guard": "tools/test_audit_2026_08_28.py, tools/test_consistency_v2.py", "value": 51.8, "canonical_object": "/assets/data/canonical_metrics.json" }, { "id": "dsnp_proxy_uncaptured", "label": "Proxy uncaptured dual opportunity", "file": "canonical_metrics.json", "path": "dsnp_capture_proxy.proxy_uncaptured", "formula": "denominator minus numerator of the capture proxy", "basis": "Same jurisdiction set and same cross-vintage caveat as the proxy.", "jurisdiction_set": "the same 49 jurisdictions", "provenance": "DERIVED", "dataset": "snp_enrollment_by_plan_and_state_live", "pages": [ "/marketing/", "/marketing/dsnp/" ], "guard": "tools/test_audit_2026_08_28.py, tools/test_consistency_v2.py", "value": 5767705, "canonical_object": "/assets/data/canonical_metrics.json" }, { "id": "marketing_opportunity_score", "label": "MedicareInsights Marketing Opportunity Score v0.1", "file": "marketing_opportunity.json", "path": "meta.version", "formula": "Percentile ranks of the available components against all scored counties, combined with published weights renormalised over what is available", "basis": "MODELED. MA mode is computable on 5 of 9 components (applied weight 0.60); D-SNP mode on 6 of 6, but three of those six are state-grain figures applied to every county in the state and must not be read as county estimates.", "jurisdiction_set": "3,199 counties", "provenance": "MODELED", "dataset": "ma_other_health_plan_enrollment_and_share_county_state_and_n", "pages": [ "/marketing/", "/marketing/opportunity/" ], "guard": "tools/test_content_consistency.py", "value": "0.1", "canonical_object": "/assets/data/marketing_opportunity.json" }, { "id": "plan_exit_affected_members", "label": "Members affected by the 2026 plan exits", "file": "plan_exits_2026.json", "path": "fields.affected_members.value", "formula": "Compiled from carrier investor disclosures and CMS non-renewal announcements", "basis": "CURATED, not computed. Not reproducible from any CMS file ingested here. The 981K figure published on /sales/aep-target-markets/ is a compiled subset of this total covering eight tracked states, and its state allocation is not independently reproducible either.", "jurisdiction_set": "national, with an eight-state compiled subset", "provenance": "CURATED", "dataset": "2026_plan_exits_and_member_migration_curated", "pages": [ "/plans/", "/plans/2026-plan-exits/", "/sales/", "/sales/aep-target-markets/" ], "guard": "tools/test_content_consistency.py", "value": 2100000, "canonical_object": "/assets/data/plan_exits_2026.json" }, { "id": "snp_total_enrollment", "label": "SNP enrollment, all types", "file": "canonical_metrics.json", "path": "snp_totals.total_snp_enrollment", "formula": "CMS SNP Comprehensive Report published total", "basis": "D-SNP, C-SNP and I-SNP. Integration contract counts are NOT additive.", "jurisdiction_set": "national CMS total", "provenance": "LIVE", "dataset": "snp_enrollment_by_plan_and_state_live", "pages": [ "/market/snp/", "/marketing/dsnp/" ], "guard": "tools/test_consistency_v2.py", "value": 8437333, "canonical_object": "/assets/data/canonical_metrics.json" } ], "terminology": { "health_plan_share": { "preferred_label": "MA & other health plan share", "short_label": "Health plan share", "cms_numerator": "MA_AND_OTH_BENES", "cms_denominator": "TOT_BENES", "cms_numerator_expansion": "Medicare Advantage and Other Health Plan Beneficiaries", "measure": "Medicare Advantage and Other Health Plan Beneficiaries", "includes": [ "Medicare Advantage", "cost plans", "PACE", "demonstrations" ], "is_ma_only": false, "count_phrasing": [ "{n} in MA & other health plans", "{n} enrolled (MA & other health plans)" ], "derived_labels": { "headroom": "health-plan share headroom", "change": "health-plan share change", "points": "health plan share points" }, "forbidden_unqualified_labels": [ "MA penetration", "Medicare Advantage penetration", "penetration rate", "penetration headroom", "penetration runway" ], "note": "MA_AND_OTH_BENES is NOT a pure Medicare Advantage count. Never render it as 'in MA' or as an unqualified 'MA penetration'. The word 'penetration' may survive in archived sections and in CMS field names, where /methodology/#archived-terminology defines it.", "route_exceptions": [ "/market/ma-penetration-by-state/", "/glossary/#penetration", "/methodology/#county-penetration", "/learn/#penetration" ], "route_note": "Public routes and fragments containing 'penetration' are preserved for links and SEO. Only visible labels, headings, descriptions, tooltips and metadata were renamed." }, "ma_only_share": { "preferred_label": "MA share of Medicare", "basis": "plan-year Medicare Advantage enrollment only, excluding cost plans, PACE and demonstrations", "is_ma_only": true, "pages": [ "/market/ma-national-trend/" ], "note": "A genuinely MA-only measure from the national trend series. It must NOT be renamed to the MA & other health plan share wording." } }, "geography_rule": { "rule": "The direct CMS record is canonical for its own geography.", "national": "the CMS National record", "state": "the CMS State record", "county": "the CMS County record", "county_aggregation": "RECONCILIATION ONLY — computed and disclosed beside the direct record, never substituted for it.", "effective": "2026-08-26", "superseded": "County aggregation previously produced state and national figures. Retired after reconciliation testing showed county sums did not reproduce the direct CMS geography-level records.", "canonical_object": "/assets/data/cms_geo_canonical.json", "guard": "tools/test_final_consistency.py, tools/test_state_reconciliation.py" }, "no_canonical_object": [ { "id": "carrier_star_average", "label": "Enrollment-weighted derived carrier Star average", "provenance": "DERIVED", "pages": [ "/plans/star-movement/", "/plans/star-erosion-drivers/", "/sales/competitor-vulnerability/" ], "reason": "The values are authored into the page HTML. There is no Star Ratings file ingested here, so no object owns them and no test can reconcile them.", "needed": "the CMS Part C and D Star Ratings files (contract x measure x year, annual October)", "must_not_say": "an official CMS carrier rating — CMS rates contracts, not carriers" }, { "id": "negotiated_drug_prices", "label": "IRA negotiated drug prices", "provenance": "STATIC EXTRACT", "pages": [ "/spend/", "/spend/negotiated-drug-prices/", "/" ], "reason": "Compiled from the CMS negotiated-price fact sheet into page HTML; no data file holds them.", "needed": "an ingested copy of the CMS negotiated-price release", "must_not_say": "a per-fill saving — the figures are prices below the CMS comparison list price on a standardised 30-day supply" } ], "not_published": [ { "id": "carrier_share_county", "label": "Carrier market share at county level", "blocked_by": "CMS Monthly Enrollment by Contract/Plan/State/County (CPSC)", "note": "No carrier dimension exists at county grain anywhere in the data model. The Market Brief must render this as unavailable, never borrow the state value." }, { "id": "plan_benefits", "label": "Premium, MOOP and benefit detail", "blocked_by": "CMS Landscape and PBP files (annual, early October)", "note": "No benefit data is ingested." }, { "id": "contract_star_ratings", "label": "Star Ratings at contract and measure level", "blocked_by": "CMS Part C and D Star Ratings files (annual, October)", "note": "Stars are held only as an enrolment-weighted derived carrier average, never as an official CMS carrier rating — CMS rates contracts, not carriers." }, { "id": "market_winnability", "label": "Market Winnability Score", "blocked_by": "CPSC, Landscape/PBP and contract-level Star Ratings", "note": "Not published, and must not be modelled from state-level data applied to counties. The 2x2 renders the axis as unavailable until the ingests land." } ] }