Which plans exited for 2026 — and where did the members go?

Q: Which plans exited for 2026 — and where did the members go?

148 MA plans terminated for 2026 affecting 2.1M members; UHC announced 109 exits. 38% of exited members moved to Humana; crosswalk premiums rose 18.4% on average. 2.1M displaced members is the largest forced-switching event in recent MA history, and an estimated 62% shopped rather than accepting the crosswalk, which suggests orphaned membership is contestable rather than settled. The capture pattern (Humana 38%, regional BCBS 18%) is consistent with brand plus $0-premium matching mattering in these moves, though the data cannot isolate the cause.

Data through Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025) · Updated January 20, 2026 curated

148 MA plans were terminated for 2026, affecting 2.1M members — UnitedHealthcare alone announced 109 plan exits. Members who accepted the default crosswalk saw premiums rise 18.4% on average; 62% shopped instead.

Provenance downgraded to curated, August 26, 2026. The plan-exit counts and affected membership on this page cannot currently be regenerated from a named CMS file held by this site: the stated source (2026 non-renewal notices and carrier disclosures) and the stated method (CMS crosswalk files) are two different inputs, and neither is ingested here. The figures stay published because they were compiled from those disclosures, and they are labeled curated rather than a CMS extract until the service-area and plan-year crosswalk ingest lands and can reproduce them.

148

Plans terminated for 2026

2.1M

Members affected

+18.4%

Avg crosswalk premium increase

Jan 2026 reconciliation

62%

Actively shopped vs auto-crosswalk

Jan 2026 reconciliation

Unless noted, figures are Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025).

Plan exits by carrier

Where exited members went

From	To	% of exits	Members (K)	Why (analyst note)
UHC	Humana	38%	353	$0-premium plan matching; Humana the most aggressive capturer in exited counties
UHC	BCBS	18%	167	Regional BCBS brand trust; PPO network preference
UHC	Regional	16%	149	UPMC, Devoted, Alignment, SCAN winning county-level share
UHC	Aetna	12%	112	CVS pharmacy channel routing in retained markets
UHC	Other/OM	16%	149	Members reverting to Original Medicare or PDP-only
Centene	Humana	41%	213	$0-premium D-SNP capture; formal CMS crosswalk assignment in several states
Aetna	BCBS	52%	104	Highmark/IBX absorbing Aetna exits in PA/NJ

Opportunity states — contestable orphaned membership

State	Orphaned (K)	Top capturer	Opportunity score	Note
FL	312	Centene	94	Largest single market opportunity; UHC and Centene exits — Humana capturing
TX	189	Centene	91	DFW and Houston corridors; Humana and regionals winning displaced members
Ohio	142	UHC	87	Columbus and Cleveland suburban markets
Illinois	98	BCBS	82	Chicago suburban HMO market; HCSC absorbing
Missouri	84	Elevance	78	STL and KC corridor; Elevance Medicaid bridge
Washington	76	UHC	76	Centene exiting; Humana and regionals absorbing
Colorado	48	Kaiser	71	Denver metro; Kaiser strongest but geography-limited
Nebraska	32	BCBS	63	BCBS Nebraska taking both UHC and BCBS rationalized exits

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Citation: MedicareInsights. “Which plans exited for 2026 — and where did the members go?.” Compiled from 2026 non-renewal announcements and carrier investor disclosures (curated; not reproducible from an ingested CMS file), data through Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025). https://medicareinsights.org/plans/2026-plan-exits/.

So what / Now what Interpretation

2.1M displaced members is the largest forced-switching event in recent MA history, and an estimated 62% shopped rather than accepting the crosswalk, which suggests orphaned membership is contestable rather than settled. The capture pattern (Humana 38%, regional BCBS 18%) is consistent with brand plus $0-premium matching mattering in these moves, though the data cannot isolate the cause.

Growth teams: the opportunity-state table ranks where orphaned members remain contestable — FL (312K) and TX (189K) lead.
Retention teams: crosswalked members absorbing an 18.4% premium increase are prime switch targets at next AEP; flag them in churn models.
Watch fall 2026 non-renewal notices for the 2027 wave; this page will version with each cycle.

Provenance — 2026 plan exits and member migration

Source file: Compiled from 2026 non-renewal announcements and carrier investor disclosures (curated; not reproducible from an ingested CMS file)
Vintage: Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025)
Last updated: January 20, 2026
Refresh cadence: Annual (non-renewals announced each fall)
Method: Field-level provenance, because these five figures do not share a source. Terminated plan count (148) and affected enrollment (2.1M): compiled from 2026 non-renewal announcements and carrier investor disclosures; not reproducible from a CMS file ingested by this site. Migration destinations: January 2026 enrollment reconciliation, directional. Active-shopping share (62%): an estimate derived from that reconciliation, not a CMS-published measure. Carrier attribution: carrier disclosures. The dataset is classified curated until a service-area and plan-year crosswalk ingest can regenerate the headline totals from a named file.
Known limitations: Migration percentages are early-year estimates; 'active shopping' share is directional.