Is each market a conversion play or a switcher fight, and how much runway is left?

Q: Is each market a conversion play or a switcher fight, and how much runway is left?

WITHDRAWN August 24, 2026 — audit record only, not current analytics. This modeled index classed every state as a conversion or switcher market from a February 2026 state file and a 44-county extract, both withdrawn. Kept so the figures published from it stay reproducible. The same quota needs a different sales motion depending on the market class. Conversion markets still have a large Original Medicare base ageing in: the pitch is MA versus FFS (a MOOP cap, extra benefits, one card) and the competition is inertia. Switcher markets are saturated: growth only comes from incumbent members, so the pitch is comparative (benefits, network, premium shock) and the battlecards page is the weapon. The runway score ranks where winnable members remain once both class and momentum are priced in.

Archived — withdrawn by the 2026-08-24 audit

WITHDRAWN — NOT CURRENT ANALYTICS. The runway index was computed from a February 2026 state file and a 76-county extract, both withdrawn. This page is kept as an audit record. Nothing on it should be cited, exported or used to plan against. View the methodology archive · Open the current alternative: the Market Opportunity Score

This page previously published a runway score by state and county. It was computed from a superseded February 2026 state file that the 2026-08-24 audit could not reconcile with the CMS county data used everywhere else on this site.

Runway score by state: top 12

This chart has been withdrawn. The runway index was computed from a superseded state file that the 2026-08-24 audit could not reconcile with the CMS county data now used everywhere else on this site. Rather than restate a score we cannot reproduce, it has been removed. State and county penetration, headroom and momentum on the current basis are in the state table and the county explorer. Read the audit.

Full state table: class, score, and inputs

These figures have been withdrawn. This runway ranking was built from a 76-county extract that a 2026-08-24 audit found was not reproducible from any CMS file — denominators were wrong by up to 995×, one county carried the wrong FIPS code, and the year-by-year history was smooth in a way observed data is not. Rather than restate numbers we cannot source, they have been removed. Penetration, headroom and momentum for all 3,199 counties are in the county explorer. Read the audit.

* velocity is the tracked-set median proxy, not measured for this state. Penetration uses the CMS monthly-file basis (MA + other over all beneficiaries). The highlighted input in each row is that state's dominant score driver — the factor sitting at the highest percentile within the field — since the index is multiplicative and no single factor is additive. It answers "why is this score high?" at a glance.

Tracked counties, runway-ranked

County velocity is measured, not proxied, so county scores are the firmer read. The county ranking below was withdrawn by the August 24, 2026 audit. Penetration, momentum, headroom and market size for all 3,199 counties are in the county explorer.

County runway table (top 20)

These figures have been withdrawn. This ranking was built from a 76-county extract that a 2026-08-24 audit found was not reproducible from any CMS file. Rather than restate numbers we cannot source, they have been removed. Health plan share, momentum and dual-eligible counts for all 3,199 counties are in the county explorer. Read the audit.

Where to go instead

The Market Opportunity ScoreCurrent analytics on the April 2026 CMS records County ExplorerFilter and rank all 3,199 counties Read the auditWhy this dataset was withdrawn

What should I do next?

Score the opportunity3,199 counties ranked on headroom and momentum Build the AEP target listWhere to point the field Open my workspaceSaved markets, analyses and alerts Work the county listFilter and rank all 3,199 counties

ⓘ Read the audit → Open the current alternative ☰ View the methodology archive

Why this analysis was withdrawn

The runway index was computed from a February 2026 state file and a 76-county extract, both withdrawn. This page previously published a runway score by state and county. It was computed from a superseded February 2026 state file that the 2026-08-24 audit could not reconcile with the CMS county data used everywhere else on this site.

What failed QA: the input state file did not reconcile with the April 2026 CMS county records, and the county half of the index came from the same withdrawn 76-county extract.
What is required to restore it: a rebuild on the canonical April 2026 CMS geography records, plus the CPSC ingest for the competitive half of the score. Both are PLANNED, not built.
Current safe substitute: the Market Opportunity Score, on the April 2026 CMS county records that every live surface uses.

Provenance — Growth runway index by state and county (withdrawn)

Source file: MedicareInsights runway index, withdrawn August 24, 2026: computed from the February 2026 state file and a 76-county extract, both withdrawn
Vintage: WITHDRAWN — historical only, not used in current production analytics. See the archive.
Last updated: July 31, 2026
Refresh cadence: No longer refreshed
Method: Runway score = penetration gap x velocity x market size, normalized so the top geography scores 100. Penetration gap is the distance to the highest penetration observed in the tracked set (revealed attainable ceiling). Velocity is the YoY penetration point change: actual for tracked counties, enrollment-weighted tracked-county average for their states, and the tracked-set median as a proxy for states with no tracked county. Market size is the Original Medicare base in millions. Geographies under 50% penetration are classed as conversion markets (sell against FFS); 50% and above are switcher markets (sell against incumbents), matching the state-page framing.
Known limitations: This is a MedicareInsights index, not CMS data, and is never citable as CMS data. Velocity for states without tracked counties inherits the tracked-set median, a rough proxy. Use for territory prioritization, not filings.