What would have to be true for this campaign to pay back?

User assumptions · no published response or conversion rates existmodeled

Every input in this model is one you enter. There is no published CMS file for response rates, conversion rates or cost per lead, so this page does not pretend to have them. What it does is make the arithmetic explicit and show you the break-even points, so a campaign business case can be argued about honestly: the disagreement moves to the assumptions, which is where it belongs.

What this is not. It does not model revenue, member lifetime value or margin. Those depend on your bid, your risk profile and your cost structure, none of which are public. If you want a payback figure, enter your own member value and the model will use it, clearly labeled as your number rather than ours.

Assumptions

Market Optional. Pulls addressable population from the county file.

Product Changes which population is treated as addressable.

Addressable population People the campaign could reach in this market.

Assumed reach Share of the addressable population the media plan actually reaches, %.

Response rate Of those reached, share who respond, %.

Lead rate Of responders, share who become a qualified lead, %.

Conversion rate Of qualified leads, share who enroll, %.

Cost per lead Blended, in dollars. Leave blank to derive it from budget.

Marketing budget Total campaign spend, in dollars.

Other acquisition cost per enrollment Optional. Broker or commission cost you want inside CAC.

Member value Optional, and yours. Nothing here supplies one.

How the arithmetic works

Output	Formula
Reached	addressable population × reach
Responses	reached × response rate
Qualified leads	responses × lead rate
Modeled enrollments	qualified leads × conversion rate
Cost per lead	entered, or budget ÷ qualified leads
Modeled CAC	(budget ÷ enrollments) + other acquisition cost per enrollment
Break-even conversion	the conversion rate at which CAC equals the member value you entered
Break-even CAC	equal to the member value you entered

No step in this chain uses a number from CMS, because CMS does not publish any of them. The addressable population is the only input this site can supply, and it comes from the county enrollment file.

So what / Now what Interpretation

A campaign business case in this category usually fails on one of two numbers: reach that assumes the whole market is addressable, or a conversion rate carried over from a different product in a different market structure. The sensitivity table is the point of this page. If the plan only works at the optimistic end of both, it is not a plan.

Run the model at your planning assumption, then run it at half the response rate. If the second run is unfundable, the campaign needs a different shape, not a bigger budget.
In high-capture D-SNP markets, expect conversion to behave like switching rather than acquisition, and set the assumption accordingly, see the D-SNP view.
Save the run with the marketing project so the assumption set is attached to the market it was made for.
Take the same assumptions to finance before the media commitment, not after it.

What should I do next?

Understand the competitive shapeConcentration and message space Talk to usTell us what you are trying to work out